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New model may help researchers better predict, prevent flu outbreaks

New model may help researchers better predict, prevent flu outbreaks

Each year the influenza virus evolves. And each year public health officials try to predict what the new strain will be and how it will affect the population.

A new study by an international team, led by Andrew W. Park, who holds a joint appointment in the Odum School of Ecology and the College of Veterinary Medicine, may make their task a little easier. It breaks ground by working across scales and linking sub-molecular changes in the influenza virus to the likelihood of influenza outbreaks.

The paper, published in the Oct. 30 edition of the journal Science, shows the relationship between the evolution of the virus and immunization rates needed to prevent an outbreak in the population. These findings can help inform efforts to prevent future outbreaks, according to Park.

“Public health officials will be able to assess the usefulness of a vaccine based upon its relationship to the current influenza strain and the population’s immunity level,” he said.

Working with equine influenza, the research team looked at the likelihood of an influenza outbreak in a population that had all been vaccinated with the same strain of the virus. They found that outbreaks began occurring when there were two or more amino acid differences and that the size of the outbreak increased with the number of amino acid differences. They also found that large outbreaks were more likely to occur if the virus and the vaccine were from different antigenic clusters—meaning that a host’s immune system perceives the two strains as different. Comparing these results with an earlier human influenza study revealed similar trends.

Another key factor in ­determining the risk of an outbreak in real populations, however, is the individual variation of immunity in the population. Because the virus keeps changing, so do the vaccines used against it. This causes the immunity of the population to be heterogeneous—some individuals have been infected with or vaccinated against last year’s influenza strain, some against strains from previous years and some have no immunity at all. Park and his colleagues found that the degree of variability of immunity plays a crucial role in determining the risk of an outbreak.

In measuring for the first time how the difference between the population’s immunity status and a new virus strain influences the risk of an epidemic, the team has taken a critical step toward linking these relationships with the dynamics of epidemics, not just for influenza but for a range of infectious diseases, according to Park.